Step Into The Cockpit With Aviator Game: A Thrilling Adventure Awaits – Just 18 months ago, pilots looking for a job with an airline had an almost bottomless well of opportunity. Industry experts have compared the shortage of experienced crew members to the 1960s, when major airlines were so in need that they actually subsidized pilot training. As 2019 drew to a close, it was quite common for regional airlines to pay substantial bonuses when they hire the right pilot, then add another lump sum after training has been completed.

Then, in the first quarter of 2020, the COVID-19 virus began to disrupt the airline industry that people took for granted as demand for air travel fell to an all-time low. In mid-April, the TSA reported that screenings at US airports were down 96% from a year ago. Stories circulated among pilots flying nearly empty planes. International travel has almost come to a standstill as airlines around the world have begun parking tens of thousands of unused planes. The pandemic seems to be the death knell for iconic aircraft such as the Boeing 747 and the Airbus A380. The US government has stepped in with some financial assistance, but as of March 2020, most airlines around the world are limping along with surges and ebbs of traffic that ripple like waves in an ocean.

Step Into The Cockpit With Aviator Game: A Thrilling Adventure Awaits

Step Into The Cockpit With Aviator Game: A Thrilling Adventure Awaits

To call the pandemic a punch in the gut for people who saw their future in the sky would be an understatement. Thousands of budding airline pilots have simply given up on their dream of ever seeing a jet cockpit. Almost without fanfare, however, many senior airline pilots have jumped in to help their companies and newcomers hoping to climb the corporate ladder by accepting early retirement offers to help cut costs. Others preparing for the holidays have decided to take pay cuts and drastically reduce their flight schedules to stay on the payroll while betting on the future. This is not the first time airline pilots have faced an uncertain future.

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People with years of experience in the industry warn future airline pilots not to lose sight of the cyclical nature of the business so as not to lose perspective when hiring.

As pilot Louis Smith said, “The PATCO strike in 1981 took out many pilots, as did the Gulf War of 1991. The 9/11 attacks required government bailouts to keep the industry going, as more than 7,000 people were laid off by the major airlines.” Smith, a retired DC-10 captain, is president and CEO of Future and Active Pilot Advisors, a professional career and financial advisory service for pilots. Between 2003 and late 2007, the second Gulf War and SARS led to lower demand, Smith said, and this, combined with high oil prices, caused significant layoffs. “Changing the mandatory retirement age to 65 on December 13, 2007 resulted in a five-year reduction in aircraft hiring, while senior pilots were given another five years to rebuild their personal budgets decimated by aircraft failures.” In total, from 2004 to 2014, “more than 8,000 pilots saw their companies fail.” But airline hiring surged in 2019, with nearly 5,000 pilots on board in early 2020 and another 2,400 before the industry hits the brakes. To put the current pilot hiring climate into perspective, Smith said, “If all of these past events combined were economic storms, then 2020 and the resulting loss of pilot jobs was a tsunami.”

A viable airline career today absolutely requires people to follow industry news and stay informed with data that indicates where the industry is headed. For example, some pilots today can indicate the bad news that some regional pilots are still on vacation after a year has passed. In any case, the best news, which should go hand in hand with the distress of the regional market, is that the number of pilots in the major markets has actually remained fairly constant, more so than during several previous declines. Southwest Airlines did not lay off a single pilot in 2020, nor did United or FedEx. However, American Airlines, Allegiant and Hawaiian have laid off some crew members.

The flight activity has seen a major change at the beginning of the spring of 2021, most of its concentration on cargo carriers and budget airlines aimed at tourists. “We expect three cargo airlines to hire more than 1,200 pilots this year,” Smith said. “Representatives of passenger airline personnel are still too shaken by the pandemic to predict any hard numbers, but the number of passenger airlines employed is likely to remain below 1,000.” Detailing additional good news in mid-March, Smith said “airlines are really getting a boost as regional airlines [like] SkyWest have started to bring back pilots from canceled classes last year.”

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Many GA pilots are attracted by airlines for the opportunity to fly a large iron plane like this Airbus. Angelo Giampiccolo/Shutterstock

Since 2020 will go down in the history books as the worst recession in airline history, it is imperative that pilot candidates have serious patience. The industry continues to evolve, perhaps almost like the chaos that began last year. The key for new pilots is not to give up on their dreams and to keep preparing for the upcoming flights.

Working on any flying career requires time, learning and faith in a strategy to keep flying no matter the cost. It would be a completely wrong tactic now to wait and watch – or for a potential pilot to convince himself that he would wait to start or continue his training until the industry recovers.

Step Into The Cockpit With Aviator Game: A Thrilling Adventure Awaits

If you are an airline looking to start now with zero flight hours, then the aviation industry will undoubtedly look very different in a few years when you have flown the 1,500 hours required to earn an airline transport pilot certificate. To prove this, compare the worst and the sadness that the industry faced only a year ago with the crushing news that some industry experts are already talking about a lack of pilot projects after the passage of COVID-19.

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Oliver Wyman’s recent aviation industry study, Post-COVID-19 Aviation Faces Pilot Shortage, states: “For carriers struggling with pilot supplies, this [COVID-19 crisis] has provided a brief respite. This will not last, and decisions made today to survive the coronavirus pandemic could jeopardize the ability of airlines in some regions to recover and grow in the future. The global fleet in operation has already recovered to 76 percent of their pre-COVID levels. Wyman conducted a survey of companies in 2019 and found that 62 percent of them cited the lack of qualified pilots as a key risk, the terms of which vary by region. The main reason in the United States is “an aging workforce threatened by mandatory retirement, fewer pilots leaving the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training.” Wyman’s research man clearly shows that more pilots will be needed soon.

The most important question, according to Wyman’s report, is not “if there will be a shortage of pilots again, but when it will happen and how big will be the gap between supply and demand.” The report says that its creators believe that there will be a global shortage of 34,000 pilots by 2025, and in extreme scenarios it could rise to 50,000. Finally, the consequences of layoffs, retirements and desertions create very serious problems for even some of the largest carriers. “An alternative airline consists of 100,000 pilots who are still on the payroll, but who fly reduced hours or on voluntary company leave. In the United States, such programs are very popular and will provide airlines with some flexibility once the industry begins to recover.” With an aging pilot population and heavy use of early retirement in North America, the pilot shortage will quickly resume, with the number of pilots projected to exceed 12,000 by 2023, representing 13 percent of total demand. The study recommends that to avoid pilot shortages in the near future, carriers must “strengthen the pipeline by continuing to invest in pilot training and recruitment programs.”

While hiring still has a long way to go to match 2019 levels, it looks like the slump is starting to break, albeit slowly, meaning future drivers should be careful. Airline executives are preparing for a future with a number of COVID-19 vaccines on the market, such as pilot project candidates.

FAPA’s latest hiring data shows that Air Wisconsin has begun hiring its first off-the-street officers. Classes are not scheduled yet, but some are expected to be announced soon. CommutAir hires FOs and runs new classes every two weeks. Endeavor Air is also hiring new senior officers and plans to hire 450 pilots this year, although no date has been released. GoJet Airlines hires FO and is already planning new classes. Horizon Air had a hiring window in March that has since closed, but the carrier is planning new hires soon. Mesa Airlines has not yet resumed its initial hiring process, but is recalling pilots with conditional job offers from last year. The first such new beginner class begins in Mesa.

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