Bet And Win On A Huge Range Of Sports At 888 Sport India – Most sports fans have heard of expected value, but few know what it really means. Even fewer people apply this concept to their bets. Here’s everything you need to know about target value and why it’s the most important factor in your ROI game.
In simple terms, the expected value of a sports bet is a way of measuring the difference between the expectations of the sports bettor and the sports bet.
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Oddsmakers set their odds through the betting lines that bettors are assigned to all money lines, points order, totals and any other type of bet. Almost all legal sports games in the US use special so-called American odds, with positive numbers awarded to the underdog (eg +100, +222, etc.) and negative numbers in the favorite (-120, -155, etc.) .
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In this system, the number of the line increases when the chance of winning decreases, and the number of the line decreases when the chance of winning increases.
This means that a +100 underdog is more likely to win than a +240 underdog (according to the book). On the other hand, the -190 favorite wins more than the -120 favorite.
For example, if the book assigns a team – say the Seahawks against the Patriots – the +100 line, which means a 50% chance of winning, or a coin.
If the bettor believes that the Seahawks have more than a 50% chance of winning this game, they give a positive expected value (+EV). If this bettor believes that the team has less than a 50% chance of winning, he assigns a negative expected value (-EV).
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Betting based on expected value gives sharp bettors a significant advantage over many other bettors and is one of the few advantages they can have. make a sports bet.
A common mistake that new players make is to look up the tables at the last minute or check the NFL odds on Sunday morning and the expected to choose the winners of the day. Those who are looking for expected value, or + EV, consider the features (and in addition, complications) that are given to be difficult in each game, usually as soon as possible, and try to understand if it is over the bet or discount.
The NFL’s top players have a habit of finding the weather early in the week. By Thursday, the decision makers will be adjusting their lineups, and in a market as competitive as the NFL, it will only be a short time before the bets are available. did not find the market.
Optimistic Betting is a basic method of sports betting that is not used by non-professionals, often referred to as “the general public.”
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A typical bettor is like a roulette player hoping that his suit will be called. A +EV bettor is a trader who wants to buy high and sell low.
Just like most sports betting players underestimate their betting potential, they can’t win in the long run by hoping for winners. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas (and now in more than a dozen states) have spent years placing bets on hundreds of thousands of games. They use the best techniques, programs and algorithms to find the most effective lines. Even the most efficient bettors “only” win about 55-56% of bets.
There is a reason that many sports books, whether in Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado or Pennsylvania, offer betting bonuses, free drinks and other benefits to a their customers. to get their money back.
Almost all bookies and online sportsbooks require at least a 5 percent commission (4.54% to be exact) on the betting line, which is called the energy or “vig”. For example, if a sports bet gives both teams a 50% chance of winning, the line for both teams will be -110 instead of the +100 (52.38% negative). This means that bettors pay an additional 5% on all bets, win or lose. A bettor must win 52.38% of their bets to break even.
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With all that said, sports betting historically has a 5-8% return on all money invested, which means sports betting gives players some trouble. best to win any kind of legal gambling. Few gamblers make big money in the future, but smart bets can keep players alive so they can play comfortably.
For this, the bettor must think deeply. Brand expectations do not guarantee long-term success, but gambling without EV considerations guarantees long-term failure.
To use another analogy, the +EV bettor is like a smart supermarket shopper. A smart shopper knows when an item is priced higher than the last visit and gets a replacement. In fact, it is the same person who buys something discounted that he would otherwise not have bought.
Sports games work the same way. Instead of betting on a team that has a high chance of winning but requires a high price to bet, + EV bettors do sports betting online to find the most differences between their bets. I think it will happen with what the book says through his books. . , that means that happens.
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Taking a sports betting example, let’s say that the Detroit Lions are -150 money favorites over the Chicago Bears. The typical bettor thinks the Lions will win, so they bet on Detroit. A serious bettor understands that the sportsbook line indicates that the Lions have a 60% chance of winning. Although they also believe that the Lions will win, they see it as more than the book. In this case, they are looking at the Bears, who are under 130 bucks for a 43.48% chance to win.
While the +EV bettor thinks the Lions are the better team – and while they are likely to win – they believe the Bears have a better 43.58% chance of winning.
The price is tied to the Bears, so it will make a +EV bettor in Chicago. Sometimes +EV can be found during the game as bettors look for an edge at sportsbooks that offer in-game bets. In short, investors are expected to bet on their idea that they will win, but what the show.
; A +EV bettor will sometimes bet on a team they expect to lose if it matters.
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Finding the space from the forecast line may seem like a complicated process, but it’s actually the easiest part of an EV forecast.
For American difficulties, if the line in the book is positive, the formula requires dividing 100 by the number in the line with 100. Like this:
So if the game line on the book is +110, divide 110 by 110 plus 100. Predictors must remember to add the first line with 100. Like this :
Converting negative events is just as easy. This time dividing the row by row adds 100. Like this:
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For example, use -190 to prefer the following. Again, the equation requires adding the two parts (or the other half of the equation) before dividing the number:
From there, the bettor can make a +EV bet, not just predicting whether the team will win, lose or cover, but measure the probability of something happening against the odds of given in the book.
Bettors may note that the probabilities in the example above do not add up to 100%. In the Bears-Lions example at the top of the page, Chicago (+130 / 43.48% chance to win) and Detroit (-150 / 60% chance to win) have a combined percentage of 103.48%
If you notice from the example of the “even” first bet, the line given to the two teams is -110 or 52.38% chance. This is because vig is used in almost all bets.
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This seemingly small fee adds up in the long run, making it difficult for game operators to make a profit, let alone a small profit. A real bet, like a toss, should be +100 heads, +100 tails. Instead, sportsbooks list Super Bowl odds as -110 for heads and tails.
Since the Super Bowl coin toss bettors are widely split between heads and tails, sports bets make a profit regardless of the outcome. In particular, since there is a 50% chance of two heads or tails, and sportsbooks pay 52.38% for the bet, this is a typical example of an -EV bet.
Most traditional sports games work in the same way. For example, if the book has an equal number of bettors betting that the favorite will cover and the favorite will not cover, the bet games that are sure to make money.
Of course, not every sports bet is a coin toss. These are what the +EV bettors are looking for, relax and wait patiently for the prediction line to pop out.
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Unfortunately, bettors have no sure way to know exactly which bets have a good expected profit. Some bettors trust their algorithms, others are looking at the news of injuries, and some have a semi-trusted feeling for the market and mostly know when to buy at a low price that is possible. they hit. last line.
As mentioned before, the books draw their lines from many years of experience with important financial and human resources. The sports book uses this amount of intelligence and financial wealth to create a line that the average bettor cannot replicate and is nearly as accurate. zero. For most games
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